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No profit in playing favorites
By Jason Tsujikawa
How have favorites performed?
Betting favorites at Emerald Downs have performed poorly so far at the meet. Through May 16, favorites had only won 33 of 136 contests, resulting in a terrible $2 ROI (return on investment) of only $1.25.
Thus far, in general, the favorites have been well overbet, and this has resulted in great
opportunities in the other pools. Part of the reason for this may be the large number of
horses arriving from other tracks or coming off layoffs. Favorites haven't been clear cut, but
have been overbet as a whole.
Strategies for beating overbet favorites
When the favorite is overbet, or a huge underlay, take a gander at the other horses
in the race. Often when a low-odds favorite gets bet down to less than say, 3-2, it can
create more than one overlay in the race. When this occurs, it makes sense to actually
play more than one horse in the race to win, as each overlay entry will pay more than
what would be expected when compared to their chances of victory.
Recent improvement
Last week, May 20 through May 23, favorites performed better, which is what one
would expect after the handicappers have seen the data on the horses' past performances
with typically at least one recent race on the Emerald Downs surface this year. During
this one-week timespan, favorites won 16 of 38 races, generating a positive $2 ROI of $2.24
for the week.
However, this recent improvement of betting favorites has not greatly improved the
overall $2 ROI for the season, which stands at only $1.46, with only 49 winning favorites
from 174 starts. Now that the season is well under way, the $2 ROI may continue to
climb somewhat as the odds on the betting favorites, on average, become more realistic.
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