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Overlays make sense, and dollars
What's the best way to win at the racetrack? The key, as you may have heard elsewhere, is the concept of an overlay. What is an overlay?An overlay is a condition where the odds at the track actually create a profitable situation for those who wager on it. For example, say that a horse has a 20 percent chance of winning. If the horse goes off at greater than 4-1, then the situation is an overlay, and the horse would be an ideal candidate for a wager. Most of the horses at post time are not overlays, but rather, underlays. Playing underlays predominately will undoubtedly lead to the horseplayer losing money in the long run, and is the same reason why most people who bet at racetracks end up leaving with a lighter wallet. The horseplayer interested in winning consistently would focus on playing overlays exclusively. How do you find overlays?The first step toward determining an overlay is to estimate what chance of winning each horse in the race has. This isn't a simple task, but based on pace, running times, class, etc., a horseplayer can come up with an estimate of the chances of each entry to win. A novice horseplayer can use the program morning line as a first cut, and look for odds above the morning line as possible overlays. Here's look at an example: Let's say that the morning line that you've come up with is as follows:
And the odds at the track are:
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In this example, Horse3 should be the horseplayer's choice, and the one that offers the best relative return (Horse4 would be about an even proposition). Assuming that the morning line is accomplished with some decent accuracy, playing overlays strictly should lead to an overall positive return in the long run. Stick to the game planOne of the toughest things to do in racing is to show restraint when wagering, and to stick exclusively to wagering on overlays. There are some races, maybe about a third of races, that have no apparent overlays, where the odds all match the horseplayer's morning line. In this case, all of the entries are underlays. My recommendations: Pass on the race, or at most make a single minimal wager, say $2 to win on the entry closest to having nominal odds. The great opportunity, the double overlayOnce in a while the horseplayer will encounter a double overlay situation, and when this occurs a larger than normal wager is justified. For example, last season while I was conversing with handicapper Doug Parry, Doug pointed out that a runner (Chisos Free Candy, at 6-1 program morning line) looked like a good price at 14-1. In looking at the form Chisos Free Candy looked like a legitimate third or fourth choice, with perhaps a 12 percent chance of victory. Needless to say, the 14-1 odds would pay over twice what our estimated morning line would pay (around 6-1), and this justified a substantially larger wager. After he crossed the wire first, and much celebration, Doug got a beer out of the deal, as promised. Playing exoticsPersonally, I don't play these much. And unless you monitor the exotic payouts, it's hard to tell just what you're going to get with these. If you must play these, strive to include only overlays in the wagers. For example, if there is a huge underlay favorite in the race, say a 4-5 horse that looks like it should be 2-1, try to leave this horse out of any exotics. The horse will likely be an underlay in the exotic pools as well, and a money-loser in the long run. Avoiding short-priced favoritesGenerally, favorites win about 25 to 30 percent of the time. When turned around, favorites get beat 70 to 75 percent of the time! Often a favorite gets hammered down to extremely low odds, creating an overlay situation in the other pools. The worst bets at the track are often odds-on favorites, those that go off at 4-5 or less. Often, betting on odds-on horses will result in a $2 return on investment of less than $1.40, overall a terrible return. Take a gander at the other contenders in the race, as when there is an odds-on favorite, this can often create great opportunities in the other pools. Bet small, win bigIf you feel good about your own morning line, stick with it ... and if you see your morning line 15-1 outsider go off at 38-1, by all means go with it! You might not hit it this time, but in the long run, with a good morning line, this should be a good practice to follow. When you do hit your high-priced overlay, it will be time to celebrate! Most importantly . . .Stay disciplined, remain focused, play overlays, have confidence, and have fun! | |