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Breeders' Cup hangover
By Tom Tolmich Here's a thing to watch: Horses that fire big in the Breeders' Cup may fizzle at low odds next out. Conversely, horses that run up the track may improve dramatically. Cash Run is victim No. 1 this year. A friend of mine was convinced this filly would destroy her foes at Churchill last weekend. I warned him that she got her win -- the big one -- and that this race wasn't part of the plan. She was smoked by a 20-1 shot that had just run second to Regally Appealing, a nice filly herself. High Yield also was overbet off a decent third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He had shown that he tended to flatten out, but due to the effort in the Cup he was bet to 4-1. The winner was Captain Steve, who ran nowhere in the very same Juvenile race! Brave Act ran in the Breeders' Cup Mile, won by Silic. Brave Act ran sixth in the B.C. and figured to be off form in the Grade II Citation, which featured the often favored Hawksley Hill, who had been the betting favorite in the B.C. Mile. Coming from dead last, Brave Act passed everyone and beat 20-1 shot Native Desert at the wire. Hawksley Hill was never close. Tuzla may be the only exception. She came out of her race against Silic with a bullet 58 and change work and figured tough versus the fillies. She got outgamed by Happyanunoit, who was kept out of the Breeders' Cup. Spanish Fern, who ran dead last in the B.C., ran a much improved third this time. Then there's Affirmed Success, who was crushed in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He wasn't originally going to run in the Cigar Mile, but Artax was injured and Success was in. Needless to say, under Jorge Chavez he won in a romp at 5-2. These are just some examples. Be careful of automatically betting horses coming right back out of Breeders' Cup races. That day is a special one -- one for which trainers have spent months prepping their horses. Consequently, horses may come back short, as shown by Cash Run's effort. The horses that get a well-deserved rest may very well continue their winning ways, say, like Silic. Finally, remember the Gulfstream track itself was surely speed biased on Breeders' Cup day. How else could Cat Thief keep going? The only horse to overcome the bias was Anees in the Juvenile. But whether he comes back and runs like that remains to be seen... |