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Back with friends
By Tom Tolmich
Last Friday at Emerald Downs there was a fairly unimpressive group of $5,000 maidens going
5 1/2 furlongs. The 4-5 favorite was a speedy sort trained by Jim Hill. She
looked to be a speed play and the others showed little if any early lick.
But closer inspection of the field would have revealed a horse who was
taking a huge drop in class - from a race against winners - and it was enough for a 7-1 upset.
Iron Sod was a great example of this angle. She had run with maidens for a few months,
never hitting the board. Then her trainer, Cliff Balcom, stuck her in a
route race against winners. She was beaten 7 lengths, not too shabby
considering the company. Her previous sprint Beyer was nearly identical
to the second choice in the wagering, Comedy Scamp. But the real advantage
was that the 4-5 favorite had a history of fading badly in the stretch.
At Turf Paradise, she had a 5-length lead in a 5-furlong race and lost
by 2 1/2, meaning she faded 7 in the lane! I bet $20 and $10 and watched in
delight as Sod caught Someday's Queen at the wire.
This angle has worked for me twice before: last year with First Page,
and this year with Independent Miss, at 7-1. The next candidates: Young
Country Star and Look at the Flag. The key is that the maiden should have
gotten something out of the race with winners: a middle move, early speed
(even easing is OK), running evenly, etc. And if the previous efforts show
comparable speed/class figures, go with it! Good Luck.
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