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Go with the 'now' horse
By Tom Tolmich Every time you read the experts' selections of a given day, they pick a horse they deem the "now" horse. Basically, the animal is up and coming, and everyone had better go along for the ride. Well, lately I've been amazed at what I've seen. What do these horses have in common? Sephus Too, Dyna's Club, Strawberry Roller, Emerald Spirit and Timein Thefastlane. How about Pnutbutrconspiracy, Sweet Dreams Angie, Skylar May, Little U, My Question and I Just Can't Wait? The answer, besides the fact that they ran first or second last week at Emerald Downs and I didn't bet any of them, is they had all just broken their maiden. That's right: the now horse! Last week alone, I was astonished to see these horses come right back and run in the top three slots. In fact, in the sixth race on Father's Day the trifecta paid $284.00 and the top three finishers had all just broken their maiden! Of recent maiden winners, only Sneakin Mac ran out of the money. It may also be noted that he was in the 12 gate -- not exactly an easy place to win. Timein Thefastlane was the final winner of the day Sunday at 14-1, having just broken his maiden as well. Heavily favored Rob Royale finished his usual third. C C Legacy was also in that race and having recently broken his maiden finished nowhere. A closer inspection reveals C C Legacy back in 10 days with no works -- and Timein Thefastlane had a month off with a respectable 1:00 1/5 work and a higher Beyer figure to boot. That, and he had higher odds! Of course, not all maiden winners come back and run big. Who's on the Lead at 2-1 ran nowhere, Weaving Justice, Warp and The Lady Has Class had the misfortune to be in a race that was very competitive for the level and ran out of the money. Hot Ticket used a rail bias and Sentimental Secret ran second all the way on a day that catered to speed. But Strawberry Roller, at 8-1, had no problem that day, using her speed to fend off 23-1 Show The Cash. Panchita was up to her old trick again and refused to load in the gate. Favored Spite and Malice, who was 0-7 at the distance and was just claimed for $40,000, ran last. Maybe the reason is simply that they just won -- they're hot. The fields they are entered in next time out -- especially non-winners of 2 -- aren't especially tough. That can't be said for Dyna's Club and Sweet Dreams Angie, who beat talented fillies Swimmie and A Jazzy Venture. I don't know the answer-but if the distance is right, the field and pace are favorable, and the jockey fits, who knows? All I know is I got hammered this week AND I think I know why! Keep track of recent maiden winners and see how they perform next out. And remember, always play a horse with decent odds -- say 4-1 or higher. Good luck. |