By Tom Tolmich

According to one article on shippers on this site, Emerald Downs horses fared worse, dollar for dollar, than shippers from tracks in California in 1998. Most of that success last year was due, I suspect, from having either a recency edge, class edge, or both. This year that has not seemed to be the case, based on the first two weeks of racing.

While I haven't calculated the average dollar return on horses who last raced here in 1998 returning to Emerald Downs, the sheer number of horses winning these first two weeks may prove that study unnecessary. After the first six days, Emerald returnees won 18 races, the same number as those from California. Opening day had seven winners who last raced here last year.

Not only are they winning in numbers, but they are finishing in the money and are often near misses at nice prices, while California shippers are bet heavily with regularity.

Turf Paradise horses have also fared well, and provided some very nice returns, tallying six winners after the first two weeks. This wasn't the case last year either, as they returned even less per dollar than the Emerald Downs horses.

The key issue is knowing when shippers from other tracks have the edge, and taking advantage of that at the windows. Some examples: Boca Fast and Tom Cat Red from California, and Zeplin Zu from Turf Paradise.

• Boca Fast, at 5-1, had the highest speed figure of 88, chased a talented field at Golden Gate in 1:08 and change, and was one of the only horses in the State Legislators Stakes field to have raced in 1999, while Edneator was making his debut as the emotional 3-2 favorite in Geoff Cooper's last race as a jockey.

• Tom Cat Red had won two times on off tracks, beaten tougher in the slop in California, had a bullet work, won first time out here last year at 18-1, and faced a very weak group of 6250 claimers. He was a gift, even at even money.

• Zeplin Zu had nearly won this year for $20,000, and was next placed in two tough allowance races, and ran for $16,000 opening weekend. In Sunday's $10,000 claimer she was being wheeled right back in a week, a great sign. Only the favorite, Yuma Bound, had run in 1999, back in January. While her form was decent, she seemed to have tailed off in California, and why was she dropped in class after the layoff if she was fit? Her trainer was struggling, her jockey winless in 16 tries. Zeplin Zu had won last year here for $25,000 while Yuma had beaten $12,500 claimers. Moreover, jockey Jose Alferez, fresh from Santa Anita, was off to a great start. Zu won at 7-1.

Finally, there's a question of tracks. Do you play the shipper from Salem? From Boise? Regardless of the location of the horse's last race, always approach the race using your best handicapping skills and insight into how the track is playing that day.

Consider speedy Big Gentry, a 9-5 favorite from California by way of Portland his last out. Along with the other California invader, Career Change, who had never finished out of the exacta in six tries, the race seemed a done deal. Left behind in the wagering was 17-1 shot Understand, who last raced poorly last winter at little known Beulah Park in Ohio. However, closer examination showed a 46 and change workout, a horse who beat tougher routing here last year, and a longshot on a day that had nothing but upsets, beginning with a $500 daily double and a 40-1 shot later in the day. Understand won, paying $36 to win. He was my sole winner and left me slightly behind for the day. The lesson was clear: A bad race or two at another track is not indicative of a horse's ability when returned to its favorite track, even when faced with seemingly better on paper.

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