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Getting off to a fast start
By Doug Parry Kind of like a horse stumbling out of the gate, a poor start makes a great excuse. But excuses are for losers. That's why I'm going to try a little harder this year to get a quick start. It's more fun than trying to play catch-up all year. Learn from the pastWith most aspects of handicapping, the way to improve is by learning from your mistakes. The start of the meet is no exception. For the past two years at Emerald Downs there has been one pronounced track bias that it's taken me too long to catch on to: speed. On opening day last year, eight of 10 winners were either first or second at the first pace call (a quarter-mile in sprints, a half-mile in routes). The speed bias continued through the second day, with six more front-running winners. Through the second weekend of last year's meet, six racing days, 30 of 58 races were won by horses that had been either first or second at the pace call. And through 10 racing days, early speedsters took 56 of 95 races. Not convinced yet? The results in 1997 were just as lopsided, with more than half of the first week's winners leading from gate to wire. Front-runners usually win their share, but for the past two years at our home track, they've been feasting on early-season races. Why front-runners?Maybe it's the short distances the horses are asked to run early in the meet. Leading the pack, a horse has a natural advantage, which is only strengthened when the finish line comes in 5 or 5 1/2 furlongs. Maybe it's a question of fitness. A lot of horses are just getting into running shape early in the meet. If they're all tired late in the race, you're unlikely to see a horse come storming from far back. Whatever the reason, I'm convinced. You won't see me playing many deep-closing Funny Tale types early in the meet. If this year is anything like the past two, there could be some golden opportunities right out of the gate. |