|
|
 |
|
|
E-mailbag: 'Playable odds'
QuestionWhy do you emphasize so much on odds? In my opinion, odds don't really matter unless they are extreme (1-2, 2-5, etc.). What is the big deal about "playable odds" and changing your strategy based on odds? If you have a horse you really like, it shouldn't matter if they are 6-1 or 8-1. If you are going to bet $5 across, then you bet $5 across. -- Julie, Auburn. AnswerBy Doug Parry What we're trying to emphasize with "playable" odds is that successful horseplayers must be willing to think on their feet. No matter how much you like a horse's chances in a race, there is always a chance he'll get beat. The key is figuring out a horse's percentage chance of winning, and if the horse has higher odds than he deserves, it's an overlay -- an opportunity for a bet. An example should illustrate this point: First, we'll take an imaginary race with a five-horse field, Horses A, B, C, D and E. After going over the past performances, we decide that the horses have the following percentage chance of winning out of 100:
The rating of horses by percentage chance tells us what odds we should expect in order for the horse to be playable. By saying Horse A has a 50 percent chance of winning, we are saying horses like him would win this kind of race half the time. At 6-1, we're saying Horse C would win the race one out of every seven times it was run, and at 19-1 Horse E wins the race one out of every 20 times (5 percent). While we really like Horse A's chances, he would need to be at odds of 1-1 (even money) or higher to be worth considering. At 4-5 odds or lower, pass. When the odds on Horse A sink too low, you are probably getting a better deal elsewhere. If Horse A is bet way down, the odds on Horse C might float up to 8-1 or 9-1, making him the more logical bet. You may be playing a horse you think is less likely to win today's race, but the strategy is sound and will pay off in the long run. The better you get at recognizing which horses have the best chance of winning, the more it will pay off. One thing to keep in mind is that the track's morning line is padded to take the track takeout into account. Instead of 100 percent, the chances of the five horses in our example would add up to 115 to 120 percent. Our even-money favorite might be 3-5, our 4-1 Horse B would be 3-1, and so on, all to take into account the amount the track takes out of the pools to pay the bills. Another advantage of using playable odds is that by basing the odds line on a 100 percent total, we factor out the takeout and try for true value. After all, your goal at the track should be to go home ahead. A good exercise to try is to make your own odds line on the races ahead of time for several days, based on a 100 percent odds line. You might be surprised at how many of your second, third, even fourth choices go off at higher odds than you expect. You might also be surprised at how many of them hit the wire first. Have a question for the Fan Zone handicappers? Write to questions@emeraldracing.com. |