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E-mailbag: Betting strategies
QuestionI have been betting two-horse exacta boxes without much success and would like more information on betting. Do you bet just a win ticket or WPS, WP, WS, S, and so on? -- John, Vancouver, BC. AnswerBy Doug Parry You are probably right that it can be tough to win by betting a lot of two-horse exacta boxes. I have had some success with those, but generally only if I dislike the favorite and I think I have it pretty well narrowed down to two other horses. Favorites are usually overbet in the exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc.), so the payoff can be good enough to justify the bet if the favorite isn't involved. I think the best strategy is to stick with a base of win-place bets on overlays, with larger bets on bigger overlays, such as a horse you think should be 6-5 going off at 3-1. I sometimes go win-place-show if the horse is at fairly high odds (8-1 or more). I'm pretty well convinced that putting the majority of your money on overlays in the WPS pools is the best way to win. The key is recognizing the overlays and jumping at the opportunities. Exotics are fun to try for the big payout, but it's probably best not to rely on a steady diet of them. For one thing they're hard to hit consistently unless you invest a lot of money, and for another the track takeout is higher, so they're not paying back out as much of what they take in. Sometimes the exacta box makes sense if you like two horses at good prices. Trifectas can be good bets in races where you really like the favorite but it's being bet so far down that you wouldn't get much back for your win-place bet. What I sometimes do in that case is key the favorite in the top spot in the trifecta and try some overlays in the second and third spots. For example, a trifecta keying horse 1 over horses 2, 3 and 4 costs $6. I've also had some luck in the past with pick-3s, again in situations where I think I can beat one or more overbet favorites in the 3-race sequence. If you're interested in finding out more about betting, one of the best books on horse racing out there is "Betting Thoroughbreds" by Steven Davidowitz. He talks a lot about betting strategies, and the book is a very good investment at around $15. Good luck! Have a question for the Fan Zone handicappers? Write to questions@emeraldracing.com. |