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E-mailbag: Beyer speed figures
QuestionI was wondering how much credence you put into Beyer numbers from different tracks. Is an 89 Beyer at Emerald better than an 85 Beyer at Bay Meadows? It would seem to me that having different people doing the Beyer numbers at different tracks will not always lend itself to a perfect science. Does the winner of a race ALWAYS receive the better Beyer number? And finally, I wonder if you had five different Beyer workers watch the same race and give all horses a Beyer number, how many numbers given would be the same for each horse in the race? Signed, Not sure if I trust those Beyers! AnswerBy Doug Parry In theory, the Beyer numbers do transfer from track to track. So an 89 at Emerald would be better than an 85 at Bay Meadows. The numbers are based purely on race times, so the winner of a race always earns the best Beyer figure, although two horses that finish a nose or head apart will earn the same number. I think your questions point out some weaknesses in the Beyer numbers, and some reasons not to take them as gospel. The numbers are made by people whose judgment may or may not be worth trusting. The people who make them may be at some faraway office, and may not have seen a single race from a smaller track like Emerald Downs. If a number doesn't seem right, they can use individual discretion to change it. Whenever human judgment enters in, there's added risk of a mistake. While it's an imperfect science, and a swing of three or four points on the Beyer scale is virtually meaningless, you'll routinely see a horse whose last speed figure was 80 be heavily bet over a horse who earned a 75 last time out. When a horse ships in from another track, it's probably best to allow for an even bigger "margin of error" in the Beyer figures. Take a second look at a horse that may seem a notch below on the Beyer scale and be careful about those that seem too good to be true. It can be tempting to let speed figures dictate which horse to play, but they are only one piece to the handicapping puzzle. I usually use them only as a starting point to help identify contenders. Have a question for the Fan Zone handicappers? Write to questions@emeraldracing.com. |